| Player | Team | Market | Line | Pick | Projection | Gap | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | PHI | Passing Yards | 226.5 | Under 226.5 | 204.1 | -22.4 | QB |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | Passing Yards | 204.5 | Over 204.5 | 226.6 | +22.1 | QB |
| Riley Leonard | IND | Passing Yards | 154.5 | Over 154.5 | 175.2 | +20.7 | QB |
| Emari Demercado | ARI | Rushing Yards | 18.5 | Over 18.5 | 31.4 | +12.9 | RB |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | Rushing Yards | 59.5 | Over 59.5 | 72.3 | +12.8 | RB |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAC | Receiving Yards | 41.5 | Over 41.5 | 49.6 | +8.1 | WR |
Early Window Props — 1:00 PM
🔵 Scaffold — Early Slate Prop Matrix
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) — Passing Yards Over — Titans secondary soft
- Brian Thomas Jr (JAX) — Receiving Yards Over — perimeter mismatch
- Derrick Henry (TEN) — Rushing Attempts Over — volume script
Indianapolis @ Houston
- Riley Leonard (IND) — Pass Attempts Over — dome pace
- Nico Collins (HOU) — Receptions Over — zone‑beater lane
- Jonathan Taylor (IND) — Rush + Rec Yards Over — Texans leak RB catches
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
- Joe Burrow (CIN) — Passing Yards Over — divisional volume
- Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) — Receiving Yards Over — alpha lane
- Amari Cooper (CLE) — Receptions Over — soft intermediate windows
Green Bay @ Minnesota
- Jordan Love (GB) — Passing TDs Over — dome aggression
- Justin Jefferson (MIN) — Alt Yards Ladder — ceiling lane
- Aaron Jones (MIN) — Rushing Yards Over — GB run‑fit issues
⚡ Crew Wrap:
Early slate strongest in JAX, CIN, and MIN lanes.
Leonard + Thomas Jr synergy clean for contest builds.
Burrow/Chase overs carry the sharpest divisional signal.
Blue‑trim discipline intact for early deployment.
Late Window Props — 4:25 PM + SNF
🔵 Scaffold — Late Slate Prop Matrix
Miami @ New England
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) — Passing Yards Over — scheme tilt
- DeMario Douglas (NE) — Receptions Over — slot volume
- De’Von Achane (MIA) — Receiving Yards Over — checkdown engine
NY Jets @ Buffalo
- Josh Allen (BUF) — Rushing Yards Over — stakes = legs
- James Cook (BUF) — Rush + Rec Yards Over — dual‑threat lock
- Bills DEF — Sacks Over — Jets OL target
Dallas @ NY Giants
- Tony Pollard (DAL) — Anytime TD — red‑zone lean
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL) — Receptions Over — volume king
- Jaxson Dart (NYG) — Pass Attempts Over — chase script
Kansas City @ Las Vegas
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) — Passing TDs Over — TD engine
- Travis Kelce (KC) — Receptions Over — chain mover
- Zamir White (LV) — Rushing Yards Over — LV’s cleanest lane
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (SNF)
- Gus Edwards (BAL) — Rushing Attempts Over — AFC North script
- Kenny Pickett (PIT) — Completions Over — short‑game grind
- Justin Tucker (BAL) — FGs Over — field‑goal fest
⚡ Crew Wrap:
BUF + DAL carry the sharpest late‑window edges.
Cook + Allen overs form a clean correlated spine.
Lamb + Pollard volatility spike remains live.
SNF leans to unders + kicker lanes as expected.
Parlay Builder — Strongest Edges
🔵 Scaffold — Parlay Spine
Core Legs
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) — Passing Yards Over — clean matchup
- Josh Allen (BUF) — Rushing Yards Over — stakes spike
- James Cook (BUF) — Combo Yards Over — usage lock
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL) — Receptions Over — volume floor
- Justin Jefferson (MIN) — Alt Yards Ladder — ceiling lane
Correlated Add‑Ons
- Brian Thomas Jr (JAX) — Receiving Yards Over — pairs with Lawrence
- Tony Pollard (DAL) — Anytime TD — pairs with Lamb volume
- Bills DEF — Sacks Over — ties BUF script together
- Gus Edwards (BAL) — Attempts Over — grind lane
⚡ Crew Wrap:
Core spine = Lawrence + Allen + Cook + Lamb.
Jefferson adds ceiling, Thomas Jr adds correlation.
Bills DEF sacks completes the BUF game script.
Blue‑trim discipline intact for parlay deployment.
NFL Sunday Fumble — Week 18
Budget: 122M • Max 3 per team • 9 Players
Late-Window Lineup — Tie-breaker Safe Build
Total Cost: 118.9M
Remaining Budget (tie-breaker): 3.1M
| Pos | Player | Team | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Bo Nix | DEN vs LAC | 17.5M | Best price/value QB, soft LAC matchup |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LAR vs ARI | 15.2M | Workhorse vs soft ARI run D |
| RB | Reynolds Harvey | DEN vs LAC | 15.0M | Run-heavy spot, Chargers run D target |
| FLEX (RB) | D’Andre Swift | CHI vs DET | 13.2M | Explosive upside, stable usage |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LAR vs ARI | 20.0M | Slate’s WR1, elite target share |
| WR | Michael Wilson | ARI @ LAR | 13.6M | Underpriced WR2 with full role |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | DEN vs LAC | 13.6M | Red-zone alpha, stacks with Nix |
| TE | Hunter Henry | NE vs MIA | 11.0M | Red-zone focus, strong mid-price anchor |
| DST | Eagles DEF/ST | PHI @ WAS | 9.8M | Turnover and sack upside vs WAS |
Team limits: DEN 3, LAR 2, ARI 1, CHI 1, NE 1, PHI 1 — all within max 3 per team.
Notes: All players projected starters, no auto-sub traps, salary left for tie-breaker equity.