Golf Insights Picks and Parlays.

🐾 Support the Crew Jar — ☕ Buy Kev a Brew and keep the rinse‑grade rolling

⛳ The Genesis Invitational 2026 — Riviera Preview & What to Expect

Riviera week is always a celebration of elite ball‑striking, classical shot‑making, and a layout that exposes any weakness. With Kikuyu fairways, Poa Annua greens, and a demanding Par‑71 routing, this is a Tee‑to‑Green examination where only the most complete players survive. With the model tuned to SG Approach, Scrambling, and Par‑5 scoring, we attack this signature event with confidence.

📍 Course Snapshot

  • Riviera Country Club • Par‑71 • 7,383 yards • Classical, tree‑lined, undulating
  • Kikuyu fairways + rough • Poa Annua greens • 12.5ft stimp
  • Fairways narrow (26–30 yards) but accuracy not essential
  • GIR extremely difficult — scrambling premium
  • Key stats: SG Tee‑to‑Green, SG Approach, Scrambling, Par‑5 scoring
  • Course experience matters — Riviera takes time to master

📦 What We’re Running This Week

  • Trading Six‑Pack: Elite T2G profiles + Riviera specialists + mid‑range value.
  • Trixies (2‑Pack): One contest‑safe, one value/brag equity.
  • Matchbet Ladder: Ball‑strikers vs weak approach players.
  • Rogue Outsiders: Three chaos darts — Riviera produces big‑price winners.
  • FRL Dutch: AM wave + soft‑green specialists + Riviera FRL history.
  • Cut‑Line Predictor: Expect around +1 depending on Thursday wind.
  • Live Trading Ladder: GIR streaks + Par‑5 scoring windows.

🔥 What to Expect This Week

  • Tee‑to‑Green test — SG T2G ranks for winners average 3rd.
  • Approach is king — SG APP winners average 9th.
  • Scrambling matters — tiny Poa greens demand touch.
  • Par‑5 scoring decides the event — winners dominate the 12 looks.
  • Experience edge — Riviera specialists repeatedly contend.
  • Round‑3 importance — 11/12 winners were top‑2 after Saturday.
  • Soft Thursday — early rain creates scoring pockets before the course firms up.
  • Price profile — last 5 winners average 51/1; mid‑range thrives here.

Bottom Line: Riviera is a classical ball‑striking exam. Our model — built on SG Tee‑to‑Green, Approach, Scrambling, and Par‑5 scoring — is tailored for this test. With the trend matrix pointing strongly toward elite T2G players and experienced Riviera performers, we attack with confidence.

⛳ PGA TOUR — GENESIS INVITATIONAL 2026 (Riviera Country Club)

Classical Riviera • Kikuyu fairways • Poa greens • Par‑71 • 7,383 yards.
Bias: SG Tee‑to‑Green + SG Approach + Scrambling + Par‑5 scoring.
Winner trends: elite T2G, mid‑range prices, course experience.

Trading Six‑Pack (Outright Market)

Back all six in the Outright Winner market.
Riviera rewards elite ball‑striking and mid‑range prices — trade out when green appears.

  1. Hideki Matsuyama — SG T2G elite; 2024 champion; perfect Riviera DNA
  2. Patrick Cantlay — top‑10 SG APP/T2G; huge course history; undervalued
  3. Collin Morikawa — precision iron play; ideal for tiny Poa greens
  4. Adam Scott — former winner; SG OTT/T2G trending; loves Riviera
  5. Si Woo Kim — top‑5 SG APP/T2G; model favourite
  6. Shane Lowry — #1 SG APP in field; soft‑conditions specialist
Staking: Even stakes across all six.
Trading: Lay when green appears — Riviera swings fast.
Note: Avoid sub‑1.65 place prices on initial backs.

Trading Notes — When to Lay

Riviera is a Tee‑to‑Green momentum track — prices collapse when players hit GIR streaks.

  • Thursday Wind Window: Lay if they spike early in gusty conditions.
  • Soft‑Greens Run: Lay after a birdie burst on softened Poa.
  • Leaderboard Trigger: Lay when they reach T5 or better pre‑Sunday.
  • Scrambling Drop: Lay if up‑and‑down % cools — Riviera punishes misses.

Rule: Protect green — Riviera volatility is real.

Lay Trigger Guide

  • Price Trigger: Lay when price halves.
  • Round‑3 Trigger: 11/12 winners were top‑2 after Saturday — lay chasers.
  • Weather Trigger: Lay if wind spikes for their next tee time.
  • Form Trigger: Lay if SG APP drops — Riviera is approach‑first.

Note: Use triggers to secure profit, not chase perfection.

Crew Trading Discipline

  • Never chase red. Riviera punishes tilt.
  • Green is green. Bank it — don’t get greedy.
  • Don’t lay too early. Let the ball‑strikers settle.
  • Don’t lay too late. GIR streaks vanish fast.
  • Trust the model. Riviera rewards precision, not power.

Reminder: Discipline > picks.

Buffer Ladder (Top‑10 & Top‑20 stabilisers)

Top‑10 Targets

  1. Shane Lowry — #1 SG APP; thrives in soft conditions
  2. Si Woo Kim — elite T2G; consistent Riviera performer

Top‑20 Targets

  1. Adam Scott — course specialist
  2. Chris Gotterup — SG Total monster; trending
Staking: Half‑stakes vs bankers. Prioritise Top‑20 if markets tighten.

Trixies (2‑pack)

Trixie A — Contest‑Safe

  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Collin Morikawa

Trixie B — Value & Brag Equity

  • Adam Scott
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Shane Lowry

Rogue Outsiders (Brag‑equity darts)

  • Chris Gotterup — SG Total spike candidate
  • Jake Knapp — OTT power + form
  • Robert MacIntyre — #1 SG Putting; soft‑conditions boost

First Round Leader (3‑man Dutch)

Targeting players with strong FRL history + soft‑green AM scoring windows.

  • Patrick Cantlay — elite Riviera FRL record; 69.3 avg
  • Adam Scott — multiple FRL top‑5s; perfect tee time
  • Tommy Fleetwood — strong SG APP/T2G; AM calm patch

⛳ PGA TOUR — GENESIS INVITATIONAL 2026 (Riviera Country Club)

Classical Riviera • Kikuyu fairways • Poa greens • Par‑71 • 7,383 yards.
Bias: SG Tee‑to‑Green + SG Approach + Scrambling + Par‑5 scoring.
Winner trends: elite T2G, mid‑range prices, course experience.
Status: Updated after Round 2 — positions and momentum reflected below.

Trading Six‑Pack (Outright Market — After Round 2)

Backed pre‑event in the Outright Winner market.
Notes below reflect current leaderboard position and trading status.

  1. Adam ScottT4, −9 (70‑63). Strong green; live to win, ideal Riviera profile.
  2. Collin MorikawaT16, −5 (68‑69). Healthy green; in touch, irons travelling.
  3. Shane LowryT33, −1 (73‑68). Amber; trending up, needs Saturday move.
  4. Si Woo KimT25, −2 (68‑72). Stable; slight regression, still in the frame.
  5. Hideki MatsuyamaT33, −1 (69‑72). Mild red; stalled but not out of it.
  6. Patrick CantlayT42, E (72‑70). Red; needs a big Saturday to re‑enter contention.
Staking: Even stakes across all six (pre‑event).
Trading: Prioritise laying into strength on Scott/Morikawa; be patient with Lowry/Si Woo; protect red on Cantlay if price allows.

Trading Notes — When to Lay (Updated Context)

Riviera remains a Tee‑to‑Green momentum track — prices compress fast when players hit GIR streaks.

  • Scott / Morikawa: Lay partial if they reach solo lead or co‑lead before Sunday.
  • Lowry / Si Woo: Lay into any move inside top‑5; they’re buffer pieces, not must‑hold winners.
  • Hideki: Only lay if price overreacts to a hot nine — form is fragile.
  • Cantlay: Treat any surge as a trading gift; he’s chasing from deep.

Rule: Protect green on Scott/Morikawa first — they are your primary equity.

Lay Trigger Guide (Unchanged Rules, New Targets)

  • Price Trigger: Lay when price halves from entry, especially on Scott/Morikawa.
  • Round‑3 Trigger: 11/12 winners were top‑2 after Saturday — lay chasers, not leaders.
  • Weather Trigger: Lay if wind spikes for their next tee time while rivals get calmer windows.
  • Form Trigger: Lay if SG APP clearly drops — Riviera is still approach‑first.

Note: Use triggers to secure profit, not chase perfection.

Crew Trading Discipline

  • Never chase red. Cantlay/H Matsuyama are managed, not rescued.
  • Green is green. Bank profit on Scott/Morikawa when the book looks healthy.
  • Don’t lay too early. Let Saturday front‑nine settle before reacting.
  • Don’t lay too late. Riviera can flip a card in three holes.
  • Trust the model. T2G + APP still drive the winners here.

Reminder: Discipline > picks — especially with leaders already in your book.

Buffer Ladder (Top‑10 & Top‑20 stabilisers — After Round 2)

Top‑10 Targets

  1. Shane Lowry — T33, −1; needs a Saturday charge but still a valid ladder piece.
  2. Si Woo Kim — T25, −2; closer to the action, solid T10 candidate with a low round.

Top‑20 Targets

  1. Adam Scott — T4, −9; already inside, use as an anchor not a chase.
  2. Chris Gotterup — SG Total monster; trendingCUT (+3), remove from ladder.
Staking: Half‑stakes vs outright positions. Focus on Lowry/Si Woo for T10, Scott for T20 cover only.

Trixies (2‑pack — Status Check)

Trixie A — Contest‑Safe

  • Hideki Matsuyama — T33, −1; weakest leg, needs a move.
  • Patrick Cantlay — T42, E; deep, treat as long‑shot leg now.
  • Collin Morikawa — T16, −5; carrying the ticket, genuine win equity.

Trixie B — Value & Brag Equity

  • Adam Scott — T4, −9; outstanding position, flagship leg.
  • Si Woo Kim — T25, −2; fine, needs one low round.
  • Shane Lowry — T33, −1; still live, but now more brag than bank.

Rogue Outsiders (Brag‑equity darts — Updated)

  • Chris Gotterup — SG Total spike candidateCUT (+3), dart expired.
  • Jake Knapp — T19, −4 (73‑65); live rogue, huge brag equity if he charges again.
  • Robert MacIntyre — T42, E (73‑69); neutral, needs a Saturday spike to matter.

First Round Leader (3‑man Dutch — Status)

FRL market settled; these now roll forward as “fast starter” watch‑list for weekend scoring.

  • Patrick Cantlay — now T42, E; FRL angle done, only relevant as a late chaser.
  • Adam Scott — now T4, −9; still a prime candidate for low weekend rounds.
  • Tommy Fleetwood — T8, −7 (69‑66); firmly in the mix, strong scoring profile.

PGA Finishing Position Package — Top‑10 / Top‑20 Staking Plan (PP‑Safe)

PP have blocked all golf doubles/trebles/Yankees, so this package uses a clean singles‑only structure with a ladder strategy to extract value without triggering restrictions. All four selections are above EVS and live based on leaderboard position and R3 momentum.

Core Singles — Top‑10 & Top‑20 (Above EVS)

  • Top 10: Cameron Young — 1u
  • Top 10: Akshay Bhatia — 1u
  • Top 20: Matt McCarty — 1u
  • Top 20: Tom Kim — 1u

Total Core Exposure: 4u • All PP‑legal • All above EVS

PP‑Safe Ladder Strategy

The ladder adds upside without touching restricted markets. Higher brackets chase profit; lower brackets stabilise variance.

  • Top 5: Cameron Young — 0.5u
  • Top 5: Akshay Bhatia — 0.5u
  • Top 30: Matt McCarty — 0.5u
  • Top 30: Tom Kim — 0.5u
  • Top 3: Cameron Young — 0.25u
  • Top 3: Akshay Bhatia — 0.25u

Total Ladder Exposure: 2.5u • High‑upside, PP‑safe

Summary

  • Total Outlay: 6.5u
  • Core Zone: Young (T10), Bhatia (T10), McCarty (T20), Tom Kim (T20)
  • Stabilisers: McCarty & Kim Top 30
  • Profit Spikes: Young & Bhatia Top 3
  • All Markets: Singles only — fully PP‑compliant

Matchbet Heat Map — Round 2 Status

Green = Leading • Amber = Level • Red = Behind

Collin Morikawa
AHEAD
Russell Henley (CUT)
Adam Scott
AHEAD
Justin Rose (CUT)
Shane Lowry
BEHIND
Max Homa
Patrick Cantlay
BEHIND
Tommy Fleetwood

Summary After Round 2

  • 2 Matchbets winning — Morikawa, Scott (both clear leaders)
  • 2 Matchbets losing — Lowry, Cantlay (Homa/Fleetwood ahead)
  • Treble dead — Lowry + Cantlay both behind
  • Yankee still alive — two winners locked, two legs still running

FRL Heat Map — Round 2 Status

Tracking our FRL package vs. the final R1 lead (‑7).

Patrick Cantlay
OUT
E (F)
Max Homa
BEHIND
‑6 (F)
Adam Scott
IN RANGE
‑9 (F)
Tony Finau
BEHIND
‑1 (F)
Jake Knapp
BEHIND
‑4 (F)
Chris Gotterup
CUT
+3 (CUT)
Denny McCarthy
BEHIND
E (F)

FRL Summary — After Round 2

  • No FRL hits — final R1 lead of −7 held firm.
  • Adam Scott was the closest of the package (−1 in R1, −9 total).
  • Homa and Knapp never got close to the spike number.
  • Cantlay and McCarthy finished well off the pace.
  • Gotterup CUT — FRL dart expired early.

🎯 First Round Leader — Riviera FRL Package

Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 6 Places (BetMGM)
Riviera FRL is all about AM wave softness, SG Tee‑to‑Green, and a streaky Poa putter. We lean into proven Riviera profiles plus current SG form.

Primary FRL Picks — Riviera

  • Patrick Cantlay — 33/1 (BetMGM) — 2× FRL, 3× FRL Top‑5 here, 69.30 R1 avg, SG T2G top‑10
  • Max Homa — 50/1 (BetMGM) — Former winner, FRL win + multiple Top‑5s, thrives on Poa
  • Adam Scott — 50/1 (BetMGM) — Multiple Riviera wins/contends, SG OTT/APP strength, perfect FRL profile
  • Tony Finau — 70/1 (BetMGM) — FRL winner here, high‑ceiling scorer when irons click

Value FRL Spike Candidates

  • Jake Knapp — 33/1 (BetMGM) — SG Total 3rd, SG Putting 3rd, perfect for a one‑round spike
  • Chris Gotterup — 33/1 (BetMGM) — Top‑5 SG OTT/APP/Total, ultra‑aggressive scorer
  • Denny McCarthy — 80/1 (BetMGM) — Elite putter, already has FRL here, perfect soft‑greens dart

🔥 FRL Trixie — Riviera Core

  • Patrick Cantlay — Elite Riviera FRL record + SG T2G
  • Max Homa — Course comfort + proven Poa heater
  • Adam Scott — Riviera specialist, perfect FRL course fit (Value)

Note: Prioritise AM tee times where possible and always check BetMGM for standout FRL prices and place terms.

Trixies (2‑pack) — Outright WIN Market (Pebble Beach)

Each Trixie uses 3 players in the Outright Winner market.
A Trixie = 4 bets (3 doubles + 1 treble).
Pebble rewards experience, SG:APP, scrambling, and calm‑weather scoring.

Trixie A — Contest‑Safe (Outright WIN market)

  • Jordan Spieth — Pebble master, elite tiny‑green scrambling
  • Patrick Cantlay — SG:APP machine, perfect Pebble profile
  • Viktor Hovland — Ball‑striking ceiling fits rota, improved short game

Purpose: Safe, trend‑aligned, high‑floor Pebble specialists.
Market: Outright Winner (E/W optional).

Trixie B — Value & Brag Equity (Outright WIN market)

  • Tom Hoge — Former winner, elite Pebble approach splits
  • Justin Rose — 2023 champ, coastal wind specialist
  • Denny McCarthy — Putting spike candidate, perfect for MPCC/Pebble

Purpose: Bigger prices, high upside, proven course‑fit.
Market: Outright Winner (E/W recommended).

🎯 72‑Hole Matchbet Ladder (Crew‑Safe Picks — Riviera)

Matchups sourced from Paddy Power — confidence tiers colour‑coded for clarity.

Based on SG Tee‑to‑Green, SG Approach, Scrambling, Poa putting, Kikuyu handling, and Riviera course history.

  • Collin Morikawa over Russell Henley — SG:APP monster on tiny Poa greens (High)
  • Adam Scott over Justin Rose — Riviera specialist; SG OTT/T2G trending (High)
  • Shane Lowry over Max Homa — #1 SG APP in field; thrives in soft conditions (High)
  • Patrick Cantlay over Tommy Fleetwood — Riviera history + elite Poa putting (High)
  • Scottie Scheffler over Rory McIlroy — SG T2G #1 in field; more stable approach play (High)
  • Chris Gotterup over Ben Griffin — SG Total spike + stronger T2G profile (Medium)
  • Jason Day over J.J. Spaun — Superior scrambling + Poa putting edge (Medium)
  • Jordan Spieth over Keegan Bradley — Poa specialist + elite scrambling (Medium)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick over Robert MacIntyre — Short‑game edge + better Par‑5 scoring (Medium)
  • Min Woo Lee over Akshay Bhatia — Higher ceiling + stronger OTT/T2G combo (Medium)
  • Viktor Hovland over Rickie Fowler — Superior T2G + better long‑iron profile (Medium)
  • Xander Schauffele over Hideki Matsuyama — More reliable putter + steadier Par‑5 scoring (Medium)
  • Harris English over Ludvig Åberg — Better Poa putting + more stable short game (Low‑Medium)
  • Maverick McNealy over Jake Knapp — Better Poa profile + calmer temperament (Low‑Medium)
  • Sam Burns over Cameron Young — Putting spike potential + more complete short game (Low‑Medium)

Note: Confidence tiers: HighMediumLow‑Medium. Only back matchbets with fair prices — avoid heavy odds‑on lines.

Matchbet Combos — Yankee & Treble (Riviera)

Built from the Paddy Power 72‑hole matchbets — focused on SG Tee‑to‑Green, Approach, Poa putting, and Riviera fit.

🧱 Yankee (4 Selections • 11 Bets)

Crew‑safe core built around elite ball‑strikers and Riviera specialists.

  • Collin Morikawa over Russell Henley — SG:APP monster on tiny Poa greens (High)
  • Adam Scott over Justin Rose — Proven Riviera specialist, strong OTT/T2G (High)
  • Shane Lowry over Max Homa — #1 SG Approach in field, loves soft conditions (High)
  • Patrick Cantlay over Tommy Fleetwood — Riviera history + elite Poa putting (High)

🎯 Treble (3 Selections • 1 Bet)

Tight, high‑confidence treble built from the strongest edges in the ladder.

  • Collin Morikawa over Russell Henley — Very High confidence, perfect Riviera profile
  • Adam Scott over Justin Rose — Course‑fit hammer, Poa‑positive stroke
  • Shane Lowry over Max Homa — Ball‑striking heater, soft‑track specialist

Note: Treat these as structure only — always check prices and avoid heavy odds‑on lines.

🧢 The Caddy’s Extras — Hidden Edges for Riviera

These are the small, sharp Riviera edges the caddies whisper about — the stuff that never shows in the spreadsheets. Perfect for FRL, matchbets, live trading, and reading how players handle Kikuyu, Poa, and the classical routing.

Tee‑Time Wave Advantage

  • Best wave: AM starters — softer greens + calmer winds
  • Poa greens bumpier in the afternoon — AM wave gains 0.3–0.5 strokes putting
  • Soft Thursday = early birdie pockets before the course firms up
  • PM wave punished if wind hits 15–20 mph as forecast

Kikuyu & Poa Handling (Massive Edge)

  • Best Kikuyu players: Aussies, South Africans, West Coast specialists
  • Kikuyu rough grabs the club — steep swingers handle it better
  • Poa greens reward firm strokes — tentative putters struggle
  • Elite Poa putters: Scott, Cantlay, Rose, Spieth, MacIntyre

Riviera Wind Windows

  • Thursday: Gusts 15–20 mph — AM wave gains strokes
  • Friday–Sunday: Calm — ball‑strikers dominate once greens firm up
  • Wind from the west makes 10, 12, and 18 brutally tough
  • Calm = back elite iron players; Wind = back grinders

FRL Bias (Riviera-Specific)

  • AM wave dominates FRL — softer Poa + smoother surfaces
  • FRL winners often come from elite T2G players with streaky putting
  • Soft Thursday = green light for aggressive iron players
  • Our FRL Dutch should lean heavily on AM tee times

Scrambling Pressure Points

  • Miss long = dead — Riviera’s back‑to‑front slopes punish over‑aggression
  • Elite scramblers gain 2–3 shots over the field across 72 holes
  • Watch for players who chip with loft — Kikuyu demands it
  • Bad scramblers collapse on 12, 15, and 18

Par‑5 Scoring (Tournament Decider)

  • Winners average -10 to -12 on the Par‑5s
  • Players who don’t score on 1, 11, and 17 are drawing dead
  • Live trading: buy players who birdie 1 early — huge confidence hole
  • Market underrates Par‑5 specialists at Riviera

Bottom Line: Riviera’s micro‑edges revolve around AM waves, Poa firmness, Kikuyu handling, and Par‑5 scoring. Use these for FRL, matchbets, and live trading — they stack green when used right.

Live Trading Ladder (In‑Play Command Centre)

Use this ladder during the event to decide who to lay, who to hold, and who to top‑up. Updates are based on momentum, price movement, SG Approach trends, and leaderboard position.

  • 🟩 Green Zone — Lay Window
    Price has shortened, momentum positive, leaderboard rising. Action: Lay to bank green.
  • 🟧 Amber Zone — Hold
    Price stable, approach play steady, no urgency. Action: Monitor SG Approach + fairways.
  • 🟥 Red Zone — Drift
    Losing strokes, missing fairways, momentum cooling. Action: Do nothing — let it drift.

  • 🔥 Momentum Signals
    Birdie runs • GIR streaks • Approach spikes • Leaderboard jumps Lay after peak momentum
  • ⚠️ Stall Signals
    Bogey‑bogey • Missing greens • OTT accuracy drops Hold — don’t lay too early
  • ❄️ Cooling Signals
    Flat scoring • Losing SG Approach • No birdie looks Avoid top‑ups

  • 📉 Lay Triggers
    • Price hits half of starting odds
    • Reaches T5 early
    • After a 2‑birdie run
    • After a hot streak on approach
  • 📈 Top‑Up Triggers
    • Price drifts but SG Approach stays positive
    • Wind softens for their wave
    • Score flat but ball‑striking strong

Reminder: The ladder guides decisions — you choose the timing. Green is green. Don’t chase red.

Cut‑Line Predictor (Riviera Classical Model)

Based on Riviera’s classical routing, Kikuyu rough, Poa greens, and historical scoring trends. Riviera is never a pure birdie‑fest — the cut is shaped by GIR difficulty + scrambling + Thursday wind.

  • Expected Cut: +1
  • Range: Even to +2 depending on Thursday gusts (15–20 mph forecast)
  • Course Split: Riviera plays tough early when soft; firms up into a T2G exam
  • Key Factor: SG Approach + Scrambling (tiny Poa greens = missed GIRs)
  • Danger Zone: Players at +3 or worse after Thursday — historically dead

Model Note: Riviera’s cut is shaped by wind + GIR difficulty. Anyone losing strokes on approach or scrambling is likely on the wrong side of the line.

📊 Genesis Invitational – Hole‑by‑Hole Trade Ladder (Riviera)

Hole(s)Crew ActionWhy
1 (Par‑5) 📈 Lean Birdie Key scoring hole; winners dominate Par‑5s — early confidence builder
2–4 (Par‑4s) ⚖️ Neutral Classical doglegs; approach accuracy > aggression; avoid early over‑trading
6 (Par‑3) ⚠️ Caution Iconic bunker‑in‑green; GIR low; par is a win
7–8 (Par‑4s) ⚖️ Neutral Approach‑first stretch; ball‑strikers gain small edges
10 (Short Par‑4) ⚠️ Caution Deceptive; wrong miss = instant bogey; market overreacts to aggression
11 (Par‑5) 📈 Lean Birdie Second Par‑5 scoring chance; elite T2G players gain strokes here
12–13 (Par‑4s) ❌ Fade Two of the toughest approach tests; scrambling premium; bogey rate spikes
14 (Par‑3) ⚠️ Caution Long iron test; Poa firmness exposes weak ball‑strikers
15–16 (Par‑4s) ⚖️ Neutral Fair scoring if in position; avoid chasing birdies
17 (Par‑5) 📈 Lean Birdie Final scoring hole; essential for contenders; live‑trade buy zone
18 (Par‑4) ❌ Fade One of the hardest closing holes on Tour; long uphill; bogey danger high

Usage: Attack the Par‑5s, respect Riviera’s brutal mid‑round stretch, and avoid aggression on 10 and 18. Trade the course, not the name — Riviera rewards patience, timing, and elite approach play.

💷 Trixie Staking Plan

A Trixie = 4 bets. When backed E/W, it becomes 8 bets. Below is the crew‑safe staking structure:

  • Trixie A (Safe): 0.5u E/W (or Win‑only if prices are short)
  • Trixie B (Value): 0.25u E/W (big prices, big upside)
  • Rule: Never exceed 1u total exposure across both Trixies
  • Rule: Avoid sub‑1.65 place prices

Why: Golf variance is high — E/W Trixies protect the downside and amplify the upside when two players run well.

🎯 What Is a Trixie? (Golf Version)

A Trixie uses 3 golfers in the Outright Winner market and automatically creates 4 bets:
• 3 x Doubles
• 1 x Treble

When backed E/W, the Trixie pays on places as well as wins. You do NOT need all 3 golfers to win — you get paid if any two of them finish high.

Example: If your 3 golfers finish 1st, 2nd, 4th, you win multiple PLACE doubles and possibly a WIN double. If they finish 2nd, 3rd, 5th, you still win PLACE doubles and the PLACE treble.

PRO MEMBERS GET IT FREE

THE STUK GOLF TRADING PDF

A futuristic, analytics‑driven guide to trading golf calmly, smartly, and profitably.

Golf Analytics Dashboard
£14.99

Instant digital download

What You’ll Learn

  • ⛳ How to trade golf calmly over 4 days instead of stress‑trading football or racing
  • 📉 How to exploit difficult stretches of holes for lay‑to‑back trades
  • 📈 Hole‑by‑hole birdie markets and how to Dutch them for consistent profit
  • 🎯 Birdie‑putt overreaction trades — when the market panics and you don’t
  • 🤝 Head‑to‑head matchups and how to build trixies for long‑term ROI
  • 🔍 How to find Top‑10 value the bookies consistently misprice
  • 🧠 How to pick your own winners using form, course fit, and volatility
  • 💥 The Six‑Pack Double Dutch method for weekly profit shots
  • 📥 Weekender Picks workflow — how to green up or run free bets

How You’ll Trade With This PDF

You’ll learn to trade golf using calm, structured, data‑driven moves. No panic. No chasing. No stress. You’ll map difficult holes, identify volatility windows, track birdie hotspots, and use in‑play price swings to build green screens without guessing. The guide shows you exactly when to lay, when to back, when to Dutch, and when to step aside — all using real tournament logic.

PRO Members: Log in to download free

🐾 Support the Crew Jar — ☕ Buy Kev a Brew and keep the rinse‑grade rolling

Modular Workflow Systems

Streamline your betting approach with adaptable workflows that allow custom strategies tailored to each golf tournament.

Bias Overlay Techniques

Incorporate bias overlays for smarter bets by analyzing player tendencies and course-specific factors influencing outcomes.

Repeat Fixture Logic

Leverage past tournament data with repeat fixture logic to predict performance trends and improve betting precision.